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Prediction for CME (2024-06-30T03:48:00-CME-001)

CME Observed Time: 2024-06-30T03:48Z
iSWAS Layout URL: https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/CME/31765/-1
CME Note: Very faint CME visible to the southeast in SOHO LASCO C2/C3 and STEREO A COR2. The start time is approximate due to the slow, faint nature of the CME in the field of view of SOHO LASCO C2, and the CME becomes more prominent in C2 around 2024-06-30T08:12Z. The source is unclear, but may be a slow eruption starting at 2024-06-30T00:07Z centered near the central meridian, around N20, best seen in SDO AIA 193. || Possible arrival signature: Characterized by an amplification of magnetic field components with Btotal increasing from 3nT at 2024-07-04T00:47Z to 10nT at 09:59Z. A very minor increase in solar wind speed was observed from 313 km/s at 08:23Z to 360 km/s at 15:02Z. An increase in density was observed as well, most notably increasing from 3 p/cc at 13:09Z to 12 p/cc at 16:08Z. This arrival may be associated with a glancing blow from CME: 2024-06-30T03:48Z.
CME Shock Arrival Time: 2024-07-04T09:23Z
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters due to CME:
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Predicted Arrival Time: 2024-07-04T10:00Z (-7.0h, +7.0h)
Predicted geomagnetic storm max Kp range due to CME: 2.0 - 4.0
Prediction Method: WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NASA M2M)
Prediction Method Note:

https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/WSA-ENLIL/31773/1
Model Inputs:
2024-06-30T03:48:00-CME-001 with CME Analysis: Lon.=-20.0, Lat.=-14.0, Speed=309.0, HalfAngle=29.0, Time21.5=2024-06-30T19:17Z

Model Output:

Earth Impact:
Earth Shock Arrival Time = 2024-07-04T10:00Z (+- 7 hours)
(kp)90=2
(kp)180=4

Other Location(s) Impact:
Lucy with esitmated shock arrival time 2024-07-06T08:00Z
STEREO A with esitmated shock arrival time 2024-07-04T08:00Z

Inner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240630_191700_2.0_anim.tim-den.gif
Inner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240630_191700_2.0_anim.tim-vel.gif
Inner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240630_191700_2.0_anim.tim-den-Stereo_A.gif
Inner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240630_191700_2.0_anim.tim-vel-Stereo_A.gif
Timelines Link = 
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240630_191700_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240630_191700_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Kp_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240630_191700_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_STA_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240630_191700_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Bepi_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240630_191700_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Lucy_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240630_191700_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Mars_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240630_191700_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Merc_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240630_191700_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_SolO_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240630_191700_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Venus_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240630_191700_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Osiris_timeline.gif

Lead Time: 87.62 hour(s)
Difference: -0.62 hour(s)
Prediction submitted by Mary Aronne (M2M Office) on 2024-06-30T17:46Z

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